#1. In your last paragraph, you allude to self-interest. My initial consideration is an assessment of the factor of their self-interest in the prognostication. A major part relies on the prophet's potential profits, past positions, professed principles, associations, networks, consideration, creds, and goals.
#2. Sometimes, "yes" - but only when I believe I have enough data to have confidence in my prognostication. And, if I have a self-interest in the outcome.
Ex: I will not predict the outcome of a sports event - primarily, because I don't care.
One of the points that Alex Edmans makes in May Contain Lies is to consider when a person says something, if data were to show the opposite, would this person change based on the data or would they stick to what they were saying, or would a published study still be published if the data showed the opposite. If the answer is no, it doesn't mean that the person or report is false, but it does introduce some red flags.
1. Pattern recognition; 2. Always.
It's so frustrating, right?
#1. In your last paragraph, you allude to self-interest. My initial consideration is an assessment of the factor of their self-interest in the prognostication. A major part relies on the prophet's potential profits, past positions, professed principles, associations, networks, consideration, creds, and goals.
#2. Sometimes, "yes" - but only when I believe I have enough data to have confidence in my prognostication. And, if I have a self-interest in the outcome.
Ex: I will not predict the outcome of a sports event - primarily, because I don't care.
One of the points that Alex Edmans makes in May Contain Lies is to consider when a person says something, if data were to show the opposite, would this person change based on the data or would they stick to what they were saying, or would a published study still be published if the data showed the opposite. If the answer is no, it doesn't mean that the person or report is false, but it does introduce some red flags.
For me, discerning the motivation, are any (fallacy) logic techniques used, and media.
I am a strong advocate of (expanded, modernized) McLuhan communications.