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Marie Bjerede's avatar

1. Pattern recognition; 2. Always.

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Byron's avatar

#1. In your last paragraph, you allude to self-interest. My initial consideration is an assessment of the factor of their self-interest in the prognostication. A major part relies on the prophet's potential profits, past positions, professed principles, associations, networks, consideration, creds, and goals.

#2. Sometimes, "yes" - but only when I believe I have enough data to have confidence in my prognostication. And, if I have a self-interest in the outcome.

Ex: I will not predict the outcome of a sports event - primarily, because I don't care.

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